When to buy cheap flight tickets to Thailand? (page 1 of 2)

Dear VoyageForum members,

For the past two months, I’ve been checking flight ticket prices to spend 4.5 weeks in Thailand from early July to early August. I’m traveling from Brussels with a young child, so I want to avoid layovers. That’s why I’m only looking at Thai Airways’ website and only choosing direct flights.

At the end of August, I saw tickets for 955 € per person. On October 1st, they were 1,225 €. Today (October 22nd), the price is the same as on October 1st. (Same dates: Departure: July 4th, Return: August 7th.)

My question is: Is it possible these prices will drop significantly in the coming months?

Note: I clear my browser cache before every search, which I always do during the week and in the evening. This time, I also checked with my work computer, which has a VPN. So, the price isn’t influenced by cookies.

Thanks in advance for your feedback and tips.

Damien

Hi there,

When I have the chance to buy tickets well in advance, I usually find the best fares about 5 months before departure. And prices tend to be lowest at the start of the week. So in your case, that would be late January or early February.

Fred

For several years now, I’ve found the best prices almost a year in advance.

Hi there,

A little survey from Capital: https://www.capital.fr/conso/quand-acheter-son-billet-davion-au-meilleur-prix-1472776

I only look for my tickets on the Thai Airways website, and I only choose direct flights.

If you only look at flights from the same airline, you’re missing out on the competition, and direct flights are often more expensive than those with a layover. Would a layover halfway be too much of a hassle with a child? On the contrary, couldn’t it provide a beneficial break?

Hi there,

The answer isn’t straightforward because we can only give advice, not foot the bill. Over the past few years, there haven’t been any hard-and-fast rules about how far in advance to buy tickets to get the lowest price.

When I first started traveling to Thailand, I’d book my ticket 3–4 months ahead. But life’s taken a different turn, and for the last ~35 trips, I’ve never booked more than 10 days in advance (sometimes just 2 or 3 days before departure). That’s let me see prices often drop significantly in that window, hitting their lowest point. But I’m always flexible with my dates by 2–3 days. Still, I know my approach might not work for you—especially since you’re not traveling solo.

Booking almost a year in advance is another extreme. The longer you wait before your trip, the higher the chance something comes up (family, health, work) that could prevent you from going. And that risk multiplies with each family member traveling with you. If you have to cancel, at best you’ll only get a partial refund—at worst, you lose everything.

If I were you, I’d pick a middle ground between those two extremes.

A layover halfway would be too much of a hassle with a kid? Wouldn’t it, on the contrary, allow for a beneficial break?

To ask the question differently, how do you keep a kid quiet for 11-12 hours straight on a plane?

Hi Damien,

If you're really set on a direct flight, you're lucky to live in Belgium at least. You can try other airlines from nearby hubs like Amsterdam, Paris, or maybe Frankfurt—but I think it's Munich instead. But a layover isn’t bad—it’s actually great, even really nice, and makes for a more pleasant flight. Cheaper for better service, too.

Michel

But a layover is good, it's even really good and makes for a more pleasant flight.

And often with airlines (from the Gulf, for example) that are better than Thai Airways.

At the end of August, I saw tickets at 955 € per person. On October 1st, they were at 1225 €.

Hi, it's simple—over two months, people bought tickets for this travel window. Online ticket sales sites operate on the law of supply and demand. The more buyers there are, the more ticket prices tend to rise. Obviously, Thailand is a very popular destination. That said, if you find good last-minute deals, it’s because the airline is discounting its unsold tickets.

I think buying your ticket almost a year in advance is another extreme because the longer the wait before departure, the higher the risk of something coming up (family, health, work...) that prevents you from leaving. Plus, that risk is multiplied by the number of people in your family traveling together. And if you cancel, at best you’re only partially refunded, at worst you lose everything.

Totally agree.

When I first started traveling to Thailand, I used to buy my ticket 3-4 months in advance. But over the last ~35 trips, life meant I never booked more than 10 days before departure (sometimes just 2 or 3 days). That’s let me see that prices often drop significantly during that time, sometimes hitting their lowest. But I always stay flexible with my dates by 2-3 days. Still, I get that my answer might not work for you since you’re not traveling alone. I think buying your ticket almost a year in advance is another extreme because the longer the wait before departure, the higher the risk of something coming up (family, health, work...) that prevents you from leaving. Plus, that risk is multiplied by the number of people in your family traveling together. And if you cancel, at best you’re only partially refunded, at worst you lose everything.

If I were you, I’d pick a middle ground between those two extremes.

I don’t think this is specific to Thailand. For many years now, I’ve been buying my tickets no more than 2-3 months in advance, and I’ve noticed that prices are lower than what I saw 6 months earlier. I recently had proof of this again for a trip to Cape Verde. Just a heads-up: searching occasionally hasn’t led to price increases in my case (at least not for me personally).

Thanks for the article, Kate. :-)

Thanks for your wisdom, Songsam.

Hi Tatra,

Since I don’t have a personal car, traveling from a nearby airport doesn’t save me money (it means taking train tickets, a night in a hotel, etc.), and it adds an extra day to the trip.

You're so lucky to live in Brussels :) 🤪.

Michel

Dear VoyageForum members,

For the past two months, I’ve been checking flight ticket prices to spend 4.5 weeks in Thailand from early July to early August. I’m flying from Brussels with a young child, so I want to avoid layovers. That’s why I’m only looking at Thai Airways’ website and only choosing direct flights.

At the end of August, I saw tickets for 955 € per person. On October 1st, they were 1225 €. Today (October 22nd), the price is the same as on October 1st. (Same dates: Departure: July 4th, Return: August 7th.)

My question is: is it possible that these prices will drop significantly in the coming months?

Note: I clear my browser cache before each search, which I always do during the week and in the evening. This time, we also checked with my work computer, which has a VPN. So, the price isn’t influenced by cookies.

Thanks in advance for your feedback and advice.

Damien

Hey, Your destination and dates in July-August mean prices are likely to rise quickly in the coming months because flights will fill up fast. Personally, since I don’t travel to tourist destinations or during school holidays, I do the opposite and book my flights 10-15 days before my chosen departure date. In your case, you’ve chosen the most expensive options (capital-to-capital, July-August, no layovers, and two dates falling on weekends). If you don’t want to change your plan, at least try nearby airports (using all airlines on Google Flights). Otherwise, the cheapest flights are those with long layovers—I choose them for the price and to enjoy visiting the cities where I have layovers without paying extra to get there. I think with long flights, a kid needs to stretch their legs (a layover is ideal for that). The cheapest flights are also usually the early morning ones. It also depends on your exact destination (Bangkok, Phuket, etc.). For your dates, there are flights with a short layover for around 900 € with a single airline for both legs (Cathay Pacific).

You're really lucky to live in Brussels 🙂.

Michel

Indeed. It lacks a bit of light in winter, but otherwise it's a very pleasant city—small and very green, yet with the advantages of a big one (cosmopolitan vibe, cultural offerings...). Many Parisians are leaving the City of Light to settle here—which means you can find more and more excellent French bakeries. :-)

Damien

Note that occasionally searching hasn’t led to any price increases.

In this case, it’s not an increase you need to worry about—it’s the lack of a decrease.

I don’t know if we can lay down absolute truths in this area 😕

Whether it’s a long or short time in advance, day or night, at work or at home... I’ve managed to find really cheap tickets to Asia without any set search rules, but mostly by dedicating quite a bit of time to it—running different simulations, setting up alerts on search engines, and, let’s be honest, sometimes just getting lucky!

As you mentioned, having flexibility of 2-3 days in your dates is a plus, as is choosing between different departure airports.

That’s exactly right.

Hi Mathews, You’ve summed up the situation perfectly for me. At 82, I’ve tried a lot of things over the years, but I haven’t been able to pin down any hard-and-fast rules—except that filling up the plane seems to matter. For the past 20 years or so, I’ve followed another tip from an Asian airline: buying tickets through a Chinese agency. At worst, it’s the same price, but often it’s cheaper. Sometimes they even buy their tickets directly in Bangkok for Thailand flights. Recently, for a Paris-Tokyo round trip, we paid just 10 € less but got premium economy, two 23kg checked bags per person, *and* agency service. Quite the experience!