Best time to book flight tickets to Seville (page 1 of 3)

Hi everyone,

Does anyone have an idea about how flight ticket prices drop for a given destination? (Excluding Ryanair, of course.)

We need to leave for Seville on December 27th. Generally, airlines launch trips on a specific date with a high price to start filling the plane. As the departure date gets closer, the airline tries to fill the plane and lowers its prices, so the ticket price becomes reasonable again.

Example: Right now, for a trip in about 10 days, the average round-trip ticket price is usually around 200 €. Currently, the round-trip ticket price for December 27th is 450 €.

If any of you have more precise info on this topic (for example, if the price drops 15 days before departure), thanks in advance for your input. Jean Paul

Hi,

No, don’t count on that. For the Christmas holidays, unless you're heading to Chisinau—and even then—everything’s really expensive, and prices don’t drop last-minute. One possible tip: the flight nobody wants, like the one leaving at 6 AM on December 25th.

Michel

Hi, Thanks first of all for your reply. You might be right—it does make sense what you're saying.

I still believe in it a little, though. Logically, they have this concern about filling the entire plane. The closer the departure date gets, the more they worry about filling the whole flight—unless all the seats have already been booked. So we'll see... I'll let you know, but first, I'd love to hear your opinion.

I've already tried this on other destinations, but it's true it wasn't on New Year's Day. Have a great day. JP

Good evening again,

I didn’t quite get whether your question was about Ryanair specifically or all other airlines instead?

Have a good evening.

Michel

Hi there,

In general, they launch the trip on a given date with a high price to start filling the plane.

It's actually the opposite. Flights go on sale with low prices first—airlines generate cash flow, and prices increase as the flight fills up. If it doesn’t fill up, a few low-price seats are released again, and so on. This is called yield management and applies to all airlines, SNCF, car rentals, and hotels. Yield management considers flight history, low/mid/high season dates, competition, events (sports, conferences, etc.), and the average cost of a seat (or room/car) to align with company policy. The goal is to fill the flight at the right price as early as possible.

As the departure date approaches, the airline tries to fill the plane and lowers its prices, so the ticket price becomes reasonable again.

Yes, but not necessarily, and it’s better not to count on it. At the last minute, the remaining seats are often sold at a high price because there will always be people who *have* to travel and will pay what it takes.

Example: Right now, for about 10 days from now, the average round-trip ticket price is generally around 200 €. Right now, the round-trip ticket price for December 27th is 450 €.

That makes total sense. During school holidays—and even more so during the end-of-year festivities—prices are higher, and the cheap seats sell out quickly.

That makes total sense. During school holidays and even more so during the end-of-year festivities, prices are higher and the cheap fares have been sold out for a while.

Following up on a discussion I had yesterday, it's actually during these times that you should start looking at business-class tickets, especially with airlines that don’t have a strong reputation in that segment, like Air France, SAS, or KLM... Sometimes there’s still one or two business-class seats left that are cheaper than the last full-price economy Y fares.

Michel

Hi everyone,

Generally, they launch the trip on a specific date with a high price to start filling the plane. As the departure date approaches, the airline tries to fill the plane and lowers its prices, so the ticket price becomes reasonable again.

Hello,

That’s a hypothesis I’m not familiar with. It’s usually the opposite. It’s the law of supply and demand. Fewer products = higher cost. There would really need to be a significant number of empty seats to attract customers by lowering prices. In air travel, that’s still rare.

Best regards,

Following up on a discussion I had yesterday, it's actually at those times that you should start looking at business-class tickets, especially with airlines that don't have a strong reputation in that segment, like Air France, SAS, or KLM....

Since in Europe the middle seat is often blocked off and there’s an adjustable curtain depending on the number of passengers per class, it gets set up quickly.

Sometimes there are still one or two business-class seats cheaper than the last full-price economy Y tickets.

A business class with restrictions will generally be cheaper than a flexible economy ticket, in fact.

In their logic, they have this concern about filling the entire plane.

yeah, well, that makes sense. To get a plane in the air, fuel and staff are quite a cost after all. After that, if you want to leave in December, it’s not the best time

A business class ticket with restrictions will generally be cheaper than an economy one with flexibility, in fact.

The price paid by the passenger in these two scenarios is often very similar, even if it’s always a bit misleading to generalize.

Michel

Otherwise, if you want to leave in December, it's not the right time

The end-of-year holidays and summer months are the worst times to travel. I don’t know which airline we’re talking about specifically, but Seville at that time means a guaranteed full flight.

Michel

I must admit, I’m surprised by your responses.

It’s true that since it’s the end-of-year period, I think things will be different, but you’ve got to believe in it. I thought some people had noticed the same price trends for flight tickets as I have—I was waiting to hear about their experiences.

I’m naturally optimistic, and my experience has always shown that this works. In the not-so-distant past, whether for India, Cuba, South America, or elsewhere, I’ve always waited, and suddenly, flight prices dropped. When that happens, the drop is reflected across all sites and all airlines.

For me, there’s a flight ticket issued for a specific destination with set times for the same day. There are 300 seats on a flight. It would be quite exceptional if, all of a sudden, all 300 seats were magically booked. So, at the very beginning when the trip opens for booking, there’s a very moderate price. Then the price goes up for a while. As the departure day and time approach, there are 50 or 60 seats left... so, well, then it makes sense to fill the plane, which seems logical to me. So, tickets are issued at a lower cost. Experience backs this up. That’s why it seems normal to me that we’ve gotten much cheaper flight tickets. Have a great day, everyone. JP

A little reading to help you understand how yield management works.

Yield management: what is it? | French National Consumer Institute

Excerpts:

"the desirability of the timing of the service, which involves charging more during peak demand periods, and vice versa, the timing of the booking, which corresponds to the actual availability of the service: the less "available stock" there is, the more expensive it will be."

I admire your optimism. But sometimes you’ve got to rely on luck or a wave of broken legs 😉. And even if it works once or twice, you definitely shouldn’t make it a general rule or truth.

Once you’ve got your flight tickets sorted, you might start looking for a car rental and accommodation with the same issue at this time of year.

Good luck 🤞

Right at the start when bookings open for this trip, there’s a very moderate price, then the price goes up for a while. Then, as the departure day and time approach, there are 50 or 60 seats left... so... JP

Hi, I’ve already mentioned on this forum that ticket prices are set by supply and demand—it’s simple. If you find cheap tickets at the last minute, it’s because they’re being discounted and the flight isn’t full. As for demand, you can’t always predict it unless you rely on empirical statistics. Anyway, economics isn’t an exact science—it also depends on customer psychology.

Hi there,

There aren’t 300 passengers—these are 737s or A320s, Embraer planes, and since this is clearly a leisure destination during vacation season, with lots of leisure or family travel, the flight will be full.

Michel

Hello everyone,

Has anyone got an idea about the logic behind flight ticket price drops for a given destination? (aside from Ryanair.)

We need to leave for Seville on December 27th. Usually, they launch the trip on a specific date with a high price to start filling the plane. As the departure date approaches, the airline tries to fill the plane and lowers its prices, so the ticket price becomes reasonable again.

Example: Right now, for about 10 days from now, the average round-trip ticket price is usually around 200 €. Currently, the round-trip ticket price for December 27th is 450 €.

If any of you have more precise info on this topic (for example, the price drops 15 days before departure), thanks in advance for your posts. Jean Paul

Hi, this happens to me very often too—getting cheaper prices 10-15 days before my chosen date. But never at the end of the year, when prices go up from December 20th until the first week of January, even for non-touristy areas, because it’s a busy period in every direction. I think your 450 € flight will be at least 600 10 €-15 days before or around Christmas.

Hello,

I thought I had explained how flight ticket prices change over time based on my own experience, but it seems I failed. I think some of you didn’t read what I wrote.

I don’t think it’s necessary to imitate the cacophony of politicians in the National Assembly right now. For goodness’ sake, no competition—let’s forget about that. Everyone sticks to their own claims, their belief in the truth, and especially their ability to explain to others that their way of thinking is the right one without even considering what happened in the past.

Yield management: what is it? | National Institute of Consumer Affairs

I’m really disappointed by your "know-it-all" attitude and your copy-pasted explanations. I’ve spent years in sales, but I have to admit you’re good at copying. The rest is something else entirely. I’m looking for a cheaper price than the current flight ticket because right now, the price has doubled. Period.

I’m not relying on "broken legs"—I’m relying on logic, simple logic, and the proof is that I’ve already explained it. To move this "nonsense" forward, I’ve already received a price drop of about 50 € from a website. No comment. Offer at 380 € instead of 450 €.

"In short, economics isn’t an exact science—it also depends on customer psychology." I didn’t understand this phrase or others like "This flight will be full."

There are about 10 flights a day, maybe more, so I don’t know what you mean or which flight out of the dozen will be full! You’ve got a bit of a forecasting side, like those who predict the weather.

I don’t think it’s worth continuing a discussion that can only be sterile given the comments. Thanks for all your input. We’re all entitled to different opinions. JP

Hello,

Thanks at last for a positive response from someone who’s actually experienced this price drop at the last minute for a ticket. Yeah, it’ll be tough at the end of the year, but who knows? Not everyone can afford to spend 450 € on a flight ticket. That’s something to keep in mind. We’ll see how it goes. I’m staying very optimistic. In fact, the ticket price drop has already started. Copy of an email subject I received from Kayak: Your flight to SVQ is now 386 € (+ more price alerts). JP

Hello,

Thanks at last for a positive response from someone who’s actually experienced this price drop at the last minute. Yeah, it’ll be tough at the end of the year, but who knows? Not everyone can afford to spend 450 € on a flight ticket. That’s something to keep in mind. We’ll see how it goes. I’m staying very optimistic. Besides, the price drop has already started. Copy of an email subject I received from Kayak: Your flight to SVQ is now 386 € (+ other Price Alerts). JP

Could you share a screenshot of your round-trip flights at this price on Kayak, please?

I already explained how yield management works with a more detailed link. And unless proven otherwise, it works extremely well because companies in the tourism industry all over the world use it.

For example, the day SNCF opens reservations for the end-of-year holidays. You can't even imagine how many people log on and book as early as 12:05 AM to get the best prices. Why wait and pay more when you know where you're going and when? Those who come later get what's left. That's just how the system works. And it's the same for airlines, hotels, and car rentals.

If prices drop slightly today, that's great. That's exactly what I wrote in message 5 ("And if the flight doesn't fill up, a few seats at lower prices are released"). Either you book if the price works for you, or you take a gamble and hope it reaches your desired budget. If you see a good deal one day, grab it right away. If not, either you won't go to Seville, or you'll pay the remaining price—otherwise, next time you'll book as early as possible. As Mathews rightly said, it's the law of supply and demand. With years in sales, you know exactly how it works.

Hope you find what you're looking for.