Upcoming Jet Fuel Shortage in Vietnam and Sri Lanka

Hi! Sri Lanka has announced it could run out of fuel in the coming weeks if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. The government has implemented a mandatory four-day workweek to save oil, and there are long lines at gas stations due to fears of an early shortage. In Vietnam, the government has warned all airlines that flights will need to be reduced due to a lack of kerosene. The country imports two-thirds of its jet fuel from China and Thailand, but both countries have now banned exports out of fear of domestic shortages. The state is asking airlines to plan ahead and park aircraft to drastically reduce operations, starting with domestic flights and then international ones. International carriers will also need to cut back on their rotations. This will begin in the coming days. 🙁

Foreign airlines are now tankering fuel to Vietnam.

Hi everyone,

Some folks have changed their holiday plans for the coming weeks because of the war and are staying in France or Europe (Spain and Italy are popular choices), and I think they’re absolutely right...

If there’s a fuel shortage, it’s better to be in a country close to France that’s accessible by train, for example (not to mention the travel conditions if you can’t get around as you’d like because of shortages...).

And things aren’t going to improve—yesterday, Israel bombed one of the world’s major natural gas fields.

Hello,

Some have changed their holiday plans for the coming weeks because of the war and will stay in France or Europe (Spain and Italy are popular) and I think they’re absolutely right....

There are very few serious reasons to give in to panic like this for the coming weeks.

The regions of the world affected are in North Asia, but all—China, Japan, and Korea—have huge reserves to act as a buffer. Next summer, if nothing improves and no alternative is found, there could be a problem.

Vietnam and Sri Lanka had no stockpile reserves; that’s a very different situation. The Philippines and other Southeast Asian countries are also at rapid risk, except probably Malaysia, Indonesia, or Singapore.

The fear-based strategy, which has permeated media and institutional discourse for years, will find yet another opportunity to take hold—especially unfortunately in France, given the role of the state.

Michel

The strategy of fear, which permeates media and institutional discourse,

What scares Westerners are the reports about tourists stranded abroad. We see it in forums and on social media—people identify with them and wouldn’t want to be in their shoes.

Anyway, spring break starts on April 4th, and many have changed their plans. They’ll be traveling closer to home.

What scares Westerners are the reports about tourists stranded abroad. We see it in forums and on social media—people identify with them and wouldn’t want to be in their shoes.

There’s no reason for anyone to get unexpectedly stranded anywhere; we’re nowhere near international flights being canceled.

Anyway, spring break starts on April 4th, and many have changed their plans.

That’s what *you’re* saying. Got any sources? Sure, some passengers have given up flights with Gulf airlines, but not because there’s no jet fuel.

You’ll always find impressionable, misinformed people acting out of fear—no need to give examples 🙂

Michel

Hi there,

People travel with full awareness—everyone makes their own choices and has their own feelings or ways of handling these kinds of issues. Everyone has to own their decisions.

Passengers who canceled flights with Gulf carriers, yes, but not because there wouldn’t be any kerosene.

If you read the online travel industry press, they say that tour operators’ bookings to the Middle East, the United States, and Thailand (among others) have dropped, while they’ve increased for Spain and Italy. They write that people are adapting based on international news—until the war, bookings to Egypt and Jordan were on the rise.

The fuel shortage issue is more recent, but word is starting to spread, and I don’t think it’s encouraging people to travel far.

Personally, I’m leaving for Tunisia in three weeks and South Korea on July 4th—I’ll see how it goes...

If you read the online travel industry press, they say that among tour operators, bookings to the Middle East, the United States, and Thailand (among others) have dropped, while they’ve increased for Spain and Italy. They write that people are adapting based on international news—until the war, bookings to Egypt and Jordan were on the rise.

All of this is cyclical and multifactorial; I still maintain that the idea that flight cancellations are to be feared almost everywhere in the world in the coming weeks due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a fantasy. In Vietnam, maybe, and in a few countries that won’t have the power to pivot, but there’s a big difference between that and going to Italy or Spain.

The fuel shortage issue is more recent, but it’s starting to get known, and I don’t think it encourages people to travel far.

I don’t know.

Personally, I’m leaving for Tunisia in three weeks and then South Korea on July 4th—I’ll see how it goes...

South Korea is very dependent on Hormuz, and by July, it might have exhausted its stocks... But it will have sourced supplies elsewhere.

Michel

In case of a fuel shortage, it's better to be in a country close to France and accessible by train (not to mention the travel conditions if you can't get around as you'd like due to shortages...).

Good evening, you're right—let's hope train ticket prices stay steady. And you can thank good ol' Charles for his energy policy back in the post-war period.

The strategy of fear, which has permeated media and institutional discourse in recent years, will find yet another opportunity to apply itself—especially unfortunately in France, given the role granted to the State.

yeah, you should go tell that to people who take their cars to work. They’ll *love* what you’re writing. Diesel in France has now hit 2.50 € per liter

from there to going to Italy or Spain, there’s a big difference.

This morning I was reading in *Sud Ouest* an interview with Michael O’Leary, Ryanair’s CEO, who noted a "massive" shift in bookings toward Europe for April, especially southern Europe (southern France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece). He said he’s not sure if this trend will continue through the summer, but he wonders, "how many Europeans will want to return to the Gulf in the short term? I don’t know."

Hello again,

Yes, but there are also quite a few low-cost carriers that have preemptively canceled flights to these regions—citing lower profitability. I won’t name names, but everyone knows who I’m talking about. For me, long-haul customers heading to Thailand or Australia via the Gulf won’t suddenly switch to Ryanair for Malaga. These aren’t the same traveler profiles or expectations. O’Leary can’t really talk about a "shift"—he doesn’t have the data to back it up. But from a PR standpoint, it works in his favor to say so.

Michel

Hey Michel,

Yes, but there are also quite a few low-cost carriers that have preemptively canceled flights to these regions—ostensibly for lower profit margins—I won’t name names, but everyone knows who I’m talking about.

SAS is also affected;

Poor fuel coverage: SAS grounds 1,000 flights after jet fuel prices double | Air Journal

In my opinion, long-haul passengers heading to Thailand or Australia via the Gulf won’t switch to Ryanair for Malaga—those aren’t the same traveler profiles or expectations.

Just to confirm, I’m leaving for Sydney tonight via Shanghai since Qatar Airways wasn’t an option. If I hadn’t found an interesting plan B for Australia, I’d have happily gone back to South Korea, especially since it’s cherry blossom season.

SAS had chosen not to have "hedging" against rising fuel prices, making it one of the few major airlines in this situation. The airline made this choice in search of a competitive edge after a very tough period and many changes. Risky bet, forced bet.

Ryanair, on the other hand, is fully hedged.

Michel

Volotea is canceling a lot of flights, especially to Corsica: it seems like they’d rather keep planes in the hangar than fly at a loss?

The message to customers:

“Due to ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East, we’ve been forced to make limited adjustments to our flight schedule.”

For me, long-haul customers heading to Thailand or Australia via the Gulf won’t switch to Ryanair for Malaga—those aren’t the same traveler profiles or expectations.

I think it depends on the traveler profiles. Those traveling with kids and/or still working won’t want to take risks during this period of uncertainty—uncertainty and tourism don’t mix well.

Someone traveling without kids and with no work constraints might see things differently.

In any case, for April, tour operators are seeing a drop in bookings to the Middle East, North Africa, and Southeast Asia, and an increase toward Europe (and France).

Some operators are even noticing this trend for the summer holidays already. For example, I read that Sunweb is seeing a shift in bookings, with a 220% increase for Portugal and +32% for Spain and Greece.

For me, long-haul passengers heading to Thailand or Australia via the Gulf won’t switch to Ryanair for Malaga—these aren’t the same profiles or expectations.

I’m sorry, but I don’t know what world you’re living in... For a long time now, the so-called upper classes, the "CSP +" as we say in France, have been shopping at Lidl or Aldi—basically, hard-discount stores. Given that many executives live in Île-de-France, where real estate prices are exorbitant, they have nothing left at the end of the month after paying school fees, groceries, rent, etc... So if the crisis continues, the profiles you’re talking about will have no choice but to settle for vacations in Europe, in Spain or Italy.

so the profiles you’re talking about, if the crisis continues, will have no choice but to fall back on vacations in Europe, in Spain or Italy.

I don’t buy it for a second, but if you say so.

Michel

I think it depends on traveler profiles—those traveling with kids and/or still working won’t want to take risks during this period of uncertainty

Traveling with kids is a money pit, especially if fuel prices keep rising. Do the math—it must cost around 10,000 € for a family of four to go to Thailand. And unless you work for a multinational or a CAC 40 company—and even then—few households in France can afford that.

Good evening,

You're talking about "package tours"—not independent travelers. The perspective isn’t the same.

Michel

Good evening Denis,

I had avoided naming the airline I was thinking of, but you’ve done it. There could also be another low-cost carrier, often based in Budapest. These companies make business decisions, likely constrained by earlier strategic choices.

Michel

You’re talking about "package tours"; not independent travelers.

If tourists traveling with an agency that can support them in case of problems are giving up on certain destinations, I don’t think families traveling as "independents" are any more reckless.

Otherwise, using a travel agent doesn’t necessarily mean "package tours"—you can just use one to buy a flight ticket. Even on travel forums, you’ll find plenty of people who use travel agents without actually going on "package tours" with a group.

It’s been a long time since the so-called upper classes, the "CSP+" as we say in France, have been shopping at Lidl or Aldi—basically, hard-discount stores.

Uhhh. I’m just at the upper limit of the middle class, and I don’t shop at those kinds of stores (the aisles really don’t appeal to me—it’s the best way for a foodie to go on a diet...).

Eating well is losing ground to owning an iPhone, a fancy car, going out to restaurants regularly, and doing all sorts of expensive (and useless) activities.

This largely explains the rise of the low-cost junk food basket. It has nothing to do with the wallet of a CSP+—they’d happily splurge on an overpriced gadget but not on a Charolais rib steak.

And honestly, isn’t it better to eat a homemade lentil dish with a good pork chop or a nice omelet than some gross frozen ground beef from a cull cow with fries of the same quality? It’s not about price. It’s just sheer laziness and a palate that’s lost its way.

Back to the topic: Gulf countries used to offer good deals and the chance to break up the long trip to the East.

Travelers put off by very long flights will opt for closer destinations, not necessarily in Europe (Africa, Cape Verde, Brazil, direct flights to India, etc.).

Budget-conscious travelers will go wherever the cheapest fares are, which will be tough to find just a few months before this summer. Think Maghreb, Senegal, Canary Islands, Eastern Europe, South Africa, maybe Central Asia, Brazil, or Colombia. Venezuela for the more adventurous...

Hi Marie,

If tourists traveling with an agency that can support them in case of problems avoid certain destinations, I don’t think families traveling as "independents" are any more reckless.

On the contrary, it seems to me that the most confident or experienced travelers don’t go through agencies. Even assuming an agency could really be a big help—which I doubt.

Besides, using a travel agent doesn’t necessarily mean "package tours"; you can use one just to buy a flight ticket, and even on travel forums, many contributors use travel agents without necessarily doing "organized group trips."

I struggle to see the point of buying standalone flights from travel agencies. Maybe 20 years ago, sure, but not now.

So if you’re saying agencies are seeing a shift in clientele toward certain destinations, that’s probably skewed by the sample. As for buying a trip to Spain from an agency—I just don’t get the concept at all… 🙂

Michel

Hi Agnes,

Travelers chasing the lowest prices will go wherever they can find them, making it tough with just a few months to go before this summer. Maghreb, Senegal, Canary Islands, Eastern Europe, South Africa, maybe Central Asia, Brazil, or Colombia. Venezuela for the more adventurous...

You reminded me that Afghanistan just introduced an e-visa—pretty pricey, I think it’s $120, but super easy to get, with or without a LOI.

I don’t know how you find the time to whip up that kind of French-style cooking, but personally, I prefer simple stuff, and I find the quality of the chain you’re criticizing really satisfying—sometimes even excellent. True, I’m not as well-off as you are 🙂.

Michel

Hi,

Air Newzland is canceling 1,100 flights over the next two months due to rising jet fuel costs.

Yes, Patrick, Air New Zealand is also highly exposed. Some airlines have little coverage on jet fuel prices, are restructuring, or were already vulnerable. On the Europe-Asia route (Korea, for Marie’s flight this summer), the safest flights will be those with a layover at a major hub.

Michel

It’s really a hassle to make a fried egg (2 minutes), lentils (20–25 minutes of cooking with no prep), and a pork chop (barely 10 minutes on the grill). You can do whatever you want during the cooking times, so it’s just 30 seconds + 30 seconds of actual work for the cook. You’re the perfect example of the laziness that’s taken over people...

As for Lidl and Aldi, I’ve gone into those stores for toilet paper and left feeling totally depressed. Aldi is even worse, by the way.

Anyway, Afghanistan isn’t for women or people who don’t like voyeurism...

It’s really super complicated to make a fried egg (2 minutes), lentils (20/25 minutes cooking with no prep), and a pork chop (barely 10 minutes on the grill). You can do whatever you want during the cooking times, so it’s 30 seconds + 30 seconds for the cook.

I don’t attach that much importance to it—honestly, I don’t care. It’s been about 40 years since I last ate French-style red meat, and I rarely eat pork. But is that really the point?

After all, Afghanistan isn’t for women or people who don’t like voyeurism...

I don’t know, but it’s probably true that it doesn’t suit your style of tourism. There have always been travelers—men and women—who go there.

Michel

I’m a bit confused about why anyone would still buy dry flights from travel agencies. Twenty years ago, maybe, but not now.

Hi there,

A couple of years ago, I couldn’t buy a flight ticket online—there was a glitch, so I went through a travel agency. They told me some people still buy dry flights from agencies, fewer than before, but it still happens.

Anyway, the real topic is people postponing vacations to destinations closer to France because of the war (bombings in Gulf countries, fuel shortages elsewhere). I don’t think it has anything to do with booking through an agency or being more confident or experienced—it’s just that people with family or work obligations don’t want to take any risks.

Either way, if airlines cancel flights, we won’t have a choice.

A couple of years ago, I couldn't buy a flight ticket—there was a bug, so I bought it through a travel agency. They told me some people still book dry flights through agencies, fewer than before but it still happens.

Of course it still exists.

Anyway, if airlines cancel flights, we won’t have a choice.

There’s a higher risk of flight cancellations from France to Spain or Italy than from France to Korea.

Michel

There’s a higher risk of flight cancellations from France to Spain or Italy than from France to Korea.

I hope so! But you still wrote that if things keep going this way, Korea might be out of fuel by summer...

Hope so! But you did write that if things keep going, Korea could be bone-dry by summer....

Korea has reserves, much like Japan, and is highly dependent on the Strait of Hormuz. But Koreans won’t drain strategic stocks to the last drop—they’ll use them to buy time to find other supply sources. You’re flying Korean Air; if they need to cut back, it won’t be by grounding planes overnight. Instead, they’ll rationalize, reduce frequencies, consolidate routes, and raise fares. Short-haul domestic flights or medium-haul routes to China or Japan would be hit first. The long-haul flight you’re on? I’d be surprised if it’s affected—maybe reduced frequency, but not canceled.

Michel

You're flying with Korean

I'm leaving on July 4th with Lufthansa via Munich.

You're flying Korean

I'm leaving on July 4th with Lufthansa via Munich.

Okay, I misread or misunderstood. Lufthansa is quite exposed; in case of tension, there could be a cancellation on the flight to Munich with an offer of a different time slot—that’s possible and conceivable. But you just need to wait calmly, no reason to worry.

Michel

But you just have to wait calmly, no reason to worry.

I’m not really worried about it—we’ll see how it goes by then.

Anyway, in three weeks, on April 11th, I’ve got a flight with Tunisair. I think they’re struggling a bit, so I’m hoping I’ll be able to leave *and* come back since I’ve got work commitments.

Travelers put off by very long flights will opt for closer destinations, but not necessarily in Europe (direct flights to India...)

The sentence is a bit contradictory: India, a "closer" destination?

Anyway, now might not be the best time to go to India, because due to the war in Iran, they're facing a gas shortage—even for cooking—all the press is covering it.

Luckily, Trump has eased sanctions against Putin, so he’ll be able to sell his gas.

More info here on India’s gas shortages: https://www.france24.com/fr/asie-pacifique/20260316-menu-r%C3%A9duit-inde-restaurants-crise-gaz-guerre-moyen-orient

India is significantly closer than Thailand or Indonesia. It’s still an acceptable flight duration.

I remember a distant discussion on this very forum about your approach to food. It’s not really your thing. For me, it’s one of life’s pleasures: a good cut of sirloin with a few potatoes baked in the ashes and a glass of red wine—pure bliss! And don’t even get me started on a raw-milk cheese platter with a slice of sourdough bread!

I also remember eating well in Sri Lanka and Vietnam, even if the dishes I mentioned earlier weren’t on the menu... I don’t think Afghanistan would suit me in that regard—or in any other, for that matter...

Hi Agnès,

What can I say, I was young in Brittany. There was no gastronomy—just excellent food, always simple. Not the kind of French fine dining with sauces, wine pairings, or elaborate meals. Quick bites, no fuss. That doesn’t stop me from trying local dishes when I travel, always within my limits, though. I really don’t like dishes like plov, for example, and I’m not big on street food or eating at markets.

Michel

Hi there,

With the rising fuel prices, United Airlines is set to cut 5% of its operations by eliminating the least profitable flights over the next two quarters.

United expects oil to reach $175 a barrel, and U.S. airlines are already passing the increase on to flight ticket prices.

But if the war continues, all planes could end up grounded for one reason or another....

More info on United Airlines: https://www.huffingtonpost.fr/international/article/la-hausse-du-carburant-liee-a-la-guerre-en-iran-pousse-deja-des-compagnies-aeriennes-americaines-a-supprimer-des-vols_261771.html

The affected regions are North Asia, including China, Japan, and Korea.

Next summer, if nothing improves and no alternative is found, there could be a problem.

Hello,

I just read on Franceinfo that South Korea is already experiencing a shortage of plastic garbage bags made from petroleum.....

Hi Marie,

But if the war continues, all planes could end up grounded for one reason or another....

No.

Michel

Hi there,

The Philippines is the first country to declare a national state of energy emergency due to tensions in the Middle East, and Cebu Pacific has announced a series of temporary route suspensions and frequency reductions on its international network. More details here: https://www.air-journal.fr/2026-03-26-guerre-au-moyen%e2%80%91orient-manille-declare-lurgence-energetique-les-compagnies-philippines-ajustent-leurs-operations-5274158.html

Good evening Marie,

You’ll probably find something new to read every evening that you’ll interpret as alarming, but there isn’t a shortage of oil—what’s missing right now is access to 20% of the supply. The players in this war are deeply tied to financial interests, so I don’t see them letting the global economy collapse. Solutions will be found. Just tonight, a Russian oil shipment was delivered to the Philippines—so, a new supplier. Countries like Vietnam and the Philippines are taking precautionary measures to ensure better supply security in the meantime.

Michel

Good evening,

This is a question: you mention that the shortage affects 20% of the energy resource—okay, that’s what we’re reading or hearing. However, I’ve heard that it might impact aviation kerosene even more, as a higher percentage of it comes from this tense region. Do you have any information to confirm or deny this? Thanks, and have a good evening. Eric

Hi, Planes from airlines heading to Southeast Asia or China, like Ethiopian Airlines, make a technical stop in Muscat to refuel due to the jet A1 shortage at their base.

Hi Eric,

As far as I know, what passes through the strait is mostly crude oil, so no, there’s no reason to say that "aviation kerosene coming from this tense region in a higher percentage." That said, refineries need to be able to produce it, and maybe there’s less precaution and stock for jet fuel than for other products. When a system is destabilized, it takes time to recover.

Michel

Hi Frédéric,

Ethiopian Airlines has always been the go-to for technical stopovers. In fact, they do some pretty cool ones—I once had the fun of flying from Copenhagen to Vienna on one of their long-haul flights. They make stopovers in Bangkok to continue on to Hong Kong, Jakarta, and more. That said, I’m surprised by what you’re saying. After spending a few minutes checking specialized sites, I didn’t find any trace of such a stopover on flights to Bangkok, for example.

Michel