Trump orders blockade of the Strait of Hormuz

Hi, It's all in the title—this means nothing's getting through, so no more oil. In Europe, kerosene reserves are still good, but by the end of April, flights will have to be reduced. European airports fear running out of kerosene if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened within three weeks

Bluff or not? Stay tuned....

Just like in Vietnam and Afghanistan, isn't Iran—which Americans slightly underestimate for its capacity to resist—likely to win in the long run?

hey, not to mention that Iran wants to impose a toll on the area 😄 Which means if ships passing through the strait have to pay a certain amount to get through, shipping companies will be forced to pass the cost on to the goods the ships are carrying.

Three weeks have passed... Iran hasn't backed down. Looks like Trump changed his mind about blocking the Strait of Hormuz 😉

The three weeks have passed... Iran hasn't backed down.

A CIA memo revealed by the Washington Post (and confirmed by U.S. officials) contradicts Trump on Iran’s ability to withstand the American blockade—Iran could hold out for another three or four months against the U.S. naval blockade. For more details: https://www.franceinfo.fr/monde/iran/guerre-entre-les-etats-unis-israel-et-l-iran/guerre-au-moyen-orient-une-note-de-la-cia-contredit-donald-trump-sur-les-capacites-de-l-iran-a-resister-au-blocus-americain_7991813.html

And the impact of this war has already cost France 6 billion €—thanks, Trump!

https://www.franceinfo.fr/monde/iran/guerre-entre-les-etats-unis-israel-et-l-iran/guerre-au-moyen-orient-le-cout-s-eleve-a-6-milliards-d-euros_7956257.html

Good evening,

Iran could resist the U.S. naval blockade for another three or four months.

Given that the blockade is being bypassed by rail transport of oil, that countries—even Japan—are starting to pay in yuan for passage through Hormuz, and that Russia will encourage the system, your timeline seems a bit short to me. Three or four years, rather.

Michel

I think you're not wrong.

your timeline seems a bit short

Good evening,

It’s not MY timeline, it’s the CIA’s timeline (see the article I linked).

Otherwise, between Iran and the US, it’s a bit like "I’ve got you, you’ve got me by the goatee".....

Hello,

When you type CIA on VF, you're directed to Rome Ciampino Airport.

In essence, the rating you're referring to predates the events I mention, and strategic realism is signaling the end of an era.

Michel

the note you're referring to predates the events I mention

The article I linked was published yesterday on Franceinfo’s website.

And today there’s a really interesting piece on Trump’s unpopularity in the U.S.—62% of Americans surveyed disapprove of his actions. This war is going to cost Trump dearly, on all fronts. For more details: https://www.franceinfo.fr/monde/usa/pourquoi-donald-trump-bat-des-records-d-impopularite-aux-etats-unis-a-six-mois-des-elections-de-mi-mandat_7987094.html