Strong "El Niño" phenomena in Kenya and Tanzania

Hello,

A must-read for anyone planning to travel to Kenya or Tanzania in the coming months.

https://www.corsematin.com/article/francemonde/70999544524516/lonu-prevoit-un-el-nino-de-tres-forte-intensite-ces-cinq-prochains-mois

In Nov./Dec. 2022, I went on a safari in the region and we suffered from the extreme temperatures caused by the "El Niño" phenomenon in the Indian Ocean at that time. On top of the extreme heat, there can be torrential rains, flooding, etc., which have led to disasters with casualties.

Worth keeping in mind (just in case).

Best regards, ...

Additional information about the upcoming "El Niño" at the end of 2026 and especially in 2027:

https://www.corsematin.com/article/meteo/4792308337543/el-nino-pourrait-battre-un-record-historique-le-phenomene-climatique-se-renforce

Puma2A

(Apologies for the messy subject line!)

...

I have a trip to Mombasa at the end of November. I’ve read your recommendations about El Niño, but what should I do concretely?

I'm leaving for Mombasa at the end of November. I've read your recommendations about El Niño, but what should I do concretely?

Hello,

The point of my post about this very strong "El Niño" forecast is to make sure visitors aren’t caught off guard. Everyone makes their own decisions with full awareness of the situation. I can’t tell you "do this" or "do that". It’s YOUR trip!

I went to southern Tanzania one year during an El Niño (Nov 2022). I only found out once I was there. We really struggled with the extreme heat. But in the weeks before, dozens of people had died due to severe flooding.

Best regards,

Puma2A

...

As of today, my travel agency hasn’t received any alerts about this El Niño phenomenon (even though we’re aware of it). Cancellation insurance only kicks in if the government declares the situation a climate disaster. Last time (I think it was in March), there were deaths in Nairobi. I was there around the same time.

As of today, my travel agency has not received any alerts regarding this El Niño phenomenon (even though we are aware of it)

Hello,

So, your travel agency—and you yourself—are questioning the information provided by the United Nations...

For your information, there is also a travel advisory issued by our Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Consular Institutions. See here:

https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/fr/information-par-pays/tanzanie/dernieres-minutes-et-alertes

Regards,

Puma2A

Safe travels.

I’ve never doubted the information shared by the UN, nor that from our Ministry of Foreign Affairs. I was simply saying that my agency, which is well aware of the El Niño phenomenon, hasn’t alerted me to any specific concerns about my trip so far. So I don’t really see what in my comment suggests I’m doubting that information

Hello,

"El Niño" will peak in December but will persist until February 2027, according to UN experts:

https://www.corsematin.com/article/meteo/41829901298723/climat-el-nino-phenomenon-will-intensify-until-its-peak-in-december

...

So with my return to France on December 20th, I’m gonna get hit hard by it. Maybe I’d be better off spending my whole stay in Nairobi instead of organizing the logistics from Diani to Nairobi by SGR

Hello everyone,

The posts I’ve shared above about "El Niño" this year are (only) for INFORMATIONAL purposes, aimed at anyone interested in or affected by the topic.

I’m not here to tell any reader what they should do!! Everyone makes their own choices about travel or vacation spots, and does so at their own discretion.

I have no advice to offer regarding "El Niño" forecasts (to anyone). Best regards,

Puma

Hello, I think you're right to inform everyone so they can decide whether to go (or not) with full awareness. It's almost certain there will be significant flooding, but its exact location and scale aren't precisely known, of course. Across East and Central Africa, as well as in the Indian Ocean, authorities are expecting this and preparing accordingly, having already communicated about it. Again, periods of drought—more or less severe depending on the location—are also expected. It's impossible to predict the specific consequences for a particular trip, date range, or location. But this way, no one will be caught off guard if they're affected during their stay.

Simply repeating in a laconic and repetitive way that your posts about El Niño are only for informational purposes is, at the very least, odd. Adding some advice (I didn’t say orders) doesn’t seem unnecessary or forbidden by the forum’s rules.

Good evening,

I have no intention whatsoever of becoming an "influencer" .... 😏 Everyone "owns" their choices and makes the most of their trips.

Glad Rotsaka (whom I thank) understood the meaning of my messages!! Cheers. And have a great trip.

Puma2A

A real overdose of the word "influencer" these days! Some people are so fixated on the world of social media that they see "influencers" everywhere as soon as you start a discussion or ask for a simple recommendation. Yet, asking for advice is just curiosity—not product placement! I suggest you look up the definition of "influencer."

...

Just so you know, I’m just as allergic to "social media" as I am to pseudo-influencers. I steer clear of both.

I’m happy to help with requests, like choosing reserves in Kenya or Tanzania, to the best of my limited knowledge (which is pretty limited).

But some choices are personal or private, and I don’t want to give advice or opinions on those. That’s my personal freedom.

Your persistence on this topic comes across as... well, provocative and even obsessive to me, don’t you think?!?!

Plus, I’ve often said—on this forum too—that "I don’t claim to have any absolute truth."

Best,

Puma2A

...

Personal attacks and judgments about my mental health ("unhealthy") have no place on a forum. When faced with emptiness in your head, you choose to become insulting, thus revealing your true colors. Behind your arrogance and smugness, providing information about the reliability of a train during the rainy season or whatever else is hardly an "intimate or personal" choice. Given the disproportionate aggression in your response to a simple logistical question, you seem to need help. Contributor syndrome: After spending years on a forum, some veterans forget the original purpose of a forum and are only here to stroke their egos,