Typhon Ketsana - Vietnam - Prévisions (28 septembre 2009)
A tous ceux qui se dirigent actuellement vers le Centre du pays, voici les infos de "Tropical Weather Underground" concernant le typhon qui se dirige vers la cote. Prenez vos precautions et, si possible, evitez cette region, il devrait tomber des trombes d'eau dans les prochaines 24 heures avec les consequences que l'on sait.
remarks: 280900z position near 15.8n 111.5e. Typhoon 17w (Ketsana), located approximately 250 nm east of hue, Vietnam, has tracked westward at 09 knots over the past six hours. With less than 36 hours remaining over open water, the typhoon is expected to reach a Max intensity within the next 12 to 24 hours, and then begin to weaken. A deep upper level trough to the northwest has significantly enhanced poleward outflow, allowing the system to intensify 15 knots since the previous forecast. The initial intensity is based on Dvorak intensity estimates from pgtw and rjtd, indicating an 80 to 90 knot system. A 25 to 30 nm ragged eye has also developed since the last forecast. Available model guidance continues to indicate a west to northwest track, with JGSM and EGRR erroneously stalling the system once it comes ashore. Maximum significant wave height at 280600z is 25 feet. Next warnings at 281500z, 282100z, 290300z and 290900z. Refer to tropical depression 18w (eighteen) warnings (wtpn32 pgtw) for six-hourly updates. Refer to tropical depression 19w (nineteen) warnings (wtpn33 pgtw) for six-hourly updates. Cordialement, Pat
remarks: 280900z position near 15.8n 111.5e. Typhoon 17w (Ketsana), located approximately 250 nm east of hue, Vietnam, has tracked westward at 09 knots over the past six hours. With less than 36 hours remaining over open water, the typhoon is expected to reach a Max intensity within the next 12 to 24 hours, and then begin to weaken. A deep upper level trough to the northwest has significantly enhanced poleward outflow, allowing the system to intensify 15 knots since the previous forecast. The initial intensity is based on Dvorak intensity estimates from pgtw and rjtd, indicating an 80 to 90 knot system. A 25 to 30 nm ragged eye has also developed since the last forecast. Available model guidance continues to indicate a west to northwest track, with JGSM and EGRR erroneously stalling the system once it comes ashore. Maximum significant wave height at 280600z is 25 feet. Next warnings at 281500z, 282100z, 290300z and 290900z. Refer to tropical depression 18w (eighteen) warnings (wtpn32 pgtw) for six-hourly updates. Refer to tropical depression 19w (nineteen) warnings (wtpn33 pgtw) for six-hourly updates. Cordialement, Pat