Best time to book flight tickets to Seville
FR

Translated into English.

Original post
JP
Hi everyone,

Does anyone have an idea about how flight ticket prices drop for a given destination? (Excluding Ryanair, of course.)

We need to leave for Seville on December 27th. Generally, airlines launch trips on a specific date with a high price to start filling the plane. As the departure date gets closer, the airline tries to fill the plane and lowers its prices, so the ticket price becomes reasonable again.

Example: Right now, for a trip in about 10 days, the average round-trip ticket price is usually around 200 €. Currently, the round-trip ticket price for December 27th is 450 €.

If any of you have more precise info on this topic (for example, if the price drops 15 days before departure), thanks in advance for your input. Jean Paul
TA Tatra Globetrotter ·
Hi,

No, don’t count on that. For the Christmas holidays, unless you're heading to Chisinau—and even then—everything’s really expensive, and prices don’t drop last-minute. One possible tip: the flight nobody wants, like the one leaving at 6 AM on December 25th.

Michel
JP JPaul92 Regular ·
Hi, Thanks first of all for your reply. You might be right—it does make sense what you're saying.

I still believe in it a little, though. Logically, they have this concern about filling the entire plane. The closer the departure date gets, the more they worry about filling the whole flight—unless all the seats have already been booked. So we'll see... I'll let you know, but first, I'd love to hear your opinion.

I've already tried this on other destinations, but it's true it wasn't on New Year's Day. Have a great day. JP
TA Tatra Globetrotter ·
Good evening again,

I didn’t quite get whether your question was about Ryanair specifically or all other airlines instead?

Have a good evening.

Michel
ER Erjome Globetrotter ·
Hi there,

In general, they launch the trip on a given date with a high price to start filling the plane.

It's actually the opposite. Flights go on sale with low prices first—airlines generate cash flow, and prices increase as the flight fills up. If it doesn’t fill up, a few low-price seats are released again, and so on. This is called yield management and applies to all airlines, SNCF, car rentals, and hotels. Yield management considers flight history, low/mid/high season dates, competition, events (sports, conferences, etc.), and the average cost of a seat (or room/car) to align with company policy. The goal is to fill the flight at the right price as early as possible.

As the departure date approaches, the airline tries to fill the plane and lowers its prices, so the ticket price becomes reasonable again.

Yes, but not necessarily, and it’s better not to count on it. At the last minute, the remaining seats are often sold at a high price because there will always be people who *have* to travel and will pay what it takes.

Example: Right now, for about 10 days from now, the average round-trip ticket price is generally around 200 €. Right now, the round-trip ticket price for December 27th is 450 €.

That makes total sense. During school holidays—and even more so during the end-of-year festivities—prices are higher, and the cheap seats sell out quickly.
"Si partir vivre ses rêves remplit l'âme, les partager après les avoir réalisés la grandit" "Qui veut apprendre à se connaître commence par explorer le monde"
TA Tatra Globetrotter ·
That makes total sense. During school holidays and even more so during the end-of-year festivities, prices are higher and the cheap fares have been sold out for a while.

Following up on a discussion I had yesterday, it's actually during these times that you should start looking at business-class tickets, especially with airlines that don’t have a strong reputation in that segment, like Air France, SAS, or KLM... Sometimes there’s still one or two business-class seats left that are cheaper than the last full-price economy Y fares.

Michel
MI Mitch341 Regular ·
Hi everyone,

Generally, they launch the trip on a specific date with a high price to start filling the plane. As the departure date approaches, the airline tries to fill the plane and lowers its prices, so the ticket price becomes reasonable again.

Hello,

That’s a hypothesis I’m not familiar with. It’s usually the opposite. It’s the law of supply and demand. Fewer products = higher cost. There would really need to be a significant number of empty seats to attract customers by lowering prices. In air travel, that’s still rare.

Best regards,
Evita Bella ! https://www.flickr.com/photos/201886709@N02/albums/
ER Erjome Globetrotter ·
Following up on a discussion I had yesterday, it's actually at those times that you should start looking at business-class tickets, especially with airlines that don't have a strong reputation in that segment, like Air France, SAS, or KLM....

Since in Europe the middle seat is often blocked off and there’s an adjustable curtain depending on the number of passengers per class, it gets set up quickly.

Sometimes there are still one or two business-class seats cheaper than the last full-price economy Y tickets.

A business class with restrictions will generally be cheaper than a flexible economy ticket, in fact.
"Si partir vivre ses rêves remplit l'âme, les partager après les avoir réalisés la grandit" "Qui veut apprendre à se connaître commence par explorer le monde"
MA Mathews Globetrotter ·
In their logic, they have this concern about filling the entire plane.

yeah, well, that makes sense. To get a plane in the air, fuel and staff are quite a cost after all. After that, if you want to leave in December, it’s not the best time
TA Tatra Globetrotter ·
A business class ticket with restrictions will generally be cheaper than an economy one with flexibility, in fact.

The price paid by the passenger in these two scenarios is often very similar, even if it’s always a bit misleading to generalize.

Michel
TA Tatra Globetrotter ·
Otherwise, if you want to leave in December, it's not the right time

The end-of-year holidays and summer months are the worst times to travel. I don’t know which airline we’re talking about specifically, but Seville at that time means a guaranteed full flight.

Michel
JP JPaul92 Regular ·
I must admit, I’m surprised by your responses.

It’s true that since it’s the end-of-year period, I think things will be different, but you’ve got to believe in it. I thought some people had noticed the same price trends for flight tickets as I have—I was waiting to hear about their experiences.

I’m naturally optimistic, and my experience has always shown that this works. In the not-so-distant past, whether for India, Cuba, South America, or elsewhere, I’ve always waited, and suddenly, flight prices dropped. When that happens, the drop is reflected across all sites and all airlines.

For me, there’s a flight ticket issued for a specific destination with set times for the same day. There are 300 seats on a flight. It would be quite exceptional if, all of a sudden, all 300 seats were magically booked. So, at the very beginning when the trip opens for booking, there’s a very moderate price. Then the price goes up for a while. As the departure day and time approach, there are 50 or 60 seats left... so, well, then it makes sense to fill the plane, which seems logical to me. So, tickets are issued at a lower cost. Experience backs this up. That’s why it seems normal to me that we’ve gotten much cheaper flight tickets. Have a great day, everyone. JP
ER Erjome Globetrotter ·
A little reading to help you understand how yield management works.

Yield management: what is it? | French National Consumer Institute

Excerpts:

"the desirability of the timing of the service, which involves charging more during peak demand periods, and vice versa, the timing of the booking, which corresponds to the actual availability of the service: the less "available stock" there is, the more expensive it will be."

I admire your optimism. But sometimes you’ve got to rely on luck or a wave of broken legs 😉. And even if it works once or twice, you definitely shouldn’t make it a general rule or truth.

Once you’ve got your flight tickets sorted, you might start looking for a car rental and accommodation with the same issue at this time of year.

Good luck 🤞
"Si partir vivre ses rêves remplit l'âme, les partager après les avoir réalisés la grandit" "Qui veut apprendre à se connaître commence par explorer le monde"
MA Mathews Globetrotter ·
Right at the start when bookings open for this trip, there’s a very moderate price, then the price goes up for a while. Then, as the departure day and time approach, there are 50 or 60 seats left... so... JP

Hi, I’ve already mentioned on this forum that ticket prices are set by supply and demand—it’s simple. If you find cheap tickets at the last minute, it’s because they’re being discounted and the flight isn’t full. As for demand, you can’t always predict it unless you rely on empirical statistics. Anyway, economics isn’t an exact science—it also depends on customer psychology.
TA Tatra Globetrotter ·
Hi there,

There aren’t 300 passengers—these are 737s or A320s, Embraer planes, and since this is clearly a leisure destination during vacation season, with lots of leisure or family travel, the flight will be full.

Michel
MI Mithron ·
Hello everyone,

Has anyone got an idea about the logic behind flight ticket price drops for a given destination? (aside from Ryanair.)

We need to leave for Seville on December 27th. Usually, they launch the trip on a specific date with a high price to start filling the plane. As the departure date approaches, the airline tries to fill the plane and lowers its prices, so the ticket price becomes reasonable again.

Example: Right now, for about 10 days from now, the average round-trip ticket price is usually around 200 €. Currently, the round-trip ticket price for December 27th is 450 €.

If any of you have more precise info on this topic (for example, the price drops 15 days before departure), thanks in advance for your posts. Jean Paul

Hi, this happens to me very often too—getting cheaper prices 10-15 days before my chosen date. But never at the end of the year, when prices go up from December 20th until the first week of January, even for non-touristy areas, because it’s a busy period in every direction. I think your 450 € flight will be at least 600 10 €-15 days before or around Christmas.
JP JPaul92 Regular ·
Hello,

I thought I had explained how flight ticket prices change over time based on my own experience, but it seems I failed. I think some of you didn’t read what I wrote.

I don’t think it’s necessary to imitate the cacophony of politicians in the National Assembly right now. For goodness’ sake, no competition—let’s forget about that. Everyone sticks to their own claims, their belief in the truth, and especially their ability to explain to others that their way of thinking is the right one without even considering what happened in the past.

Yield management: what is it? | National Institute of Consumer Affairs

I’m really disappointed by your "know-it-all" attitude and your copy-pasted explanations. I’ve spent years in sales, but I have to admit you’re good at copying. The rest is something else entirely. I’m looking for a cheaper price than the current flight ticket because right now, the price has doubled. Period.

I’m not relying on "broken legs"—I’m relying on logic, simple logic, and the proof is that I’ve already explained it. To move this "nonsense" forward, I’ve already received a price drop of about 50 € from a website. No comment. Offer at 380 € instead of 450 €.

"In short, economics isn’t an exact science—it also depends on customer psychology." I didn’t understand this phrase or others like "This flight will be full."

There are about 10 flights a day, maybe more, so I don’t know what you mean or which flight out of the dozen will be full! You’ve got a bit of a forecasting side, like those who predict the weather.

I don’t think it’s worth continuing a discussion that can only be sterile given the comments. Thanks for all your input. We’re all entitled to different opinions. JP
JP JPaul92 Regular ·
Hello,

Thanks at last for a positive response from someone who’s actually experienced this price drop at the last minute for a ticket. Yeah, it’ll be tough at the end of the year, but who knows? Not everyone can afford to spend 450 € on a flight ticket. That’s something to keep in mind. We’ll see how it goes. I’m staying very optimistic. In fact, the ticket price drop has already started. Copy of an email subject I received from Kayak: Your flight to SVQ is now 386 € (+ more price alerts). JP
MI Mithron ·
Hello,

Thanks at last for a positive response from someone who’s actually experienced this price drop at the last minute. Yeah, it’ll be tough at the end of the year, but who knows? Not everyone can afford to spend 450 € on a flight ticket. That’s something to keep in mind. We’ll see how it goes. I’m staying very optimistic. Besides, the price drop has already started. Copy of an email subject I received from Kayak: Your flight to SVQ is now 386 € (+ other Price Alerts). JP

Could you share a screenshot of your round-trip flights at this price on Kayak, please?
ER Erjome Globetrotter ·
I already explained how yield management works with a more detailed link. And unless proven otherwise, it works extremely well because companies in the tourism industry all over the world use it.

For example, the day SNCF opens reservations for the end-of-year holidays. You can't even imagine how many people log on and book as early as 12:05 AM to get the best prices. Why wait and pay more when you know where you're going and when? Those who come later get what's left. That's just how the system works. And it's the same for airlines, hotels, and car rentals.

If prices drop slightly today, that's great. That's exactly what I wrote in message 5 ("And if the flight doesn't fill up, a few seats at lower prices are released"). Either you book if the price works for you, or you take a gamble and hope it reaches your desired budget. If you see a good deal one day, grab it right away. If not, either you won't go to Seville, or you'll pay the remaining price—otherwise, next time you'll book as early as possible. As Mathews rightly said, it's the law of supply and demand. With years in sales, you know exactly how it works.

Hope you find what you're looking for.
"Si partir vivre ses rêves remplit l'âme, les partager après les avoir réalisés la grandit" "Qui veut apprendre à se connaître commence par explorer le monde"
MA Mathews Globetrotter ·
Hello,

I thought I had explained how flight ticket prices change over time based on my own experience after living through what I described. It didn’t work out! I think some of you didn’t read my post.

What a fuss this discussion is 😉 If you’re able to answer the questions you’re asking yourselves, what’s the point of this thread then? Don’t you think it’s like a snake biting its own tail? 😛 You guys are really something else, haha
TA Tatra Globetrotter ·
We get where you're going, but where are you leaving from? I don’t think I read that part. From what I gather, you’re talking about either Transavia or Vueling, not Ryanair (due to aversion) or Air France. The return date also heavily impacts the round-trip ticket and its price—if you return on January 7th, for example, prices will be at their lowest. When are you heading back? Or are you talking about a one-way ticket?

Michel
MI Mithron ·
Hello,

I thought I had explained how flight ticket prices change over time based on my own experience after living through what I described. Guess not! I think some of you didn’t read my post.

What a fuss this discussion is 😉 If you’re able to answer the questions you’re asking yourselves, what’s the point of this thread then? Don’t you think it’s like a snake biting its own tail? 😛 You guys are really something else, haha

If they shared their departure airport, exact return dates, and chosen flight times, we could check their claims over time. After all, it’s only a month and a half away—but will they do it? So this topic can actually make sense.
MA Mathews Globetrotter ·
you're right, we don't know the departure city
JP JPaul92 Regular ·
I'm leaving from Paris

Here's a screenshot of a round-trip flight from December 27th to January 2nd for 2 people. You can see the graph showing the drop in airfare prices. It's rare for me to waste so much time like this for nothing—this exchange wasn’t constructive at all and didn’t give me anything. No comment. __

I had attached the hard copy, but it’s no longer possible to send a screenshot. Too bad. Sorry.
MI Mithron ·
I'm leaving from Paris

Here's a screenshot of a round-trip flight from December 27th to January 2nd for 2 people. You can see the graph showing the drop in airfare prices. It's rare for me to waste so much time like this for nothing, for an exchange I'd say is totally unconstructive and brings me absolutely nothing. No comment. __

I had attached the hard copy, but it's no longer possible to send a screenshot. Too bad. Sorry.

Good evening, just so you know, Paris has 3 airports—it doesn’t help us know where you’re departing from. Plus, you're hoping to save money while traveling to one of the most tourist-heavy areas during the end-of-year period, which for Spaniards means a lot of travel since they’re very family-oriented. And you’ve chosen a Friday and a Saturday for your flights—the most expensive days, actually, since Tuesdays and Wednesdays are more affordable. And if you’re stuck only using Kayak without following their links to the airline sites (which is rare on this site), you’ll be in for some surprises. Anyway, screenshots work here (if you tell us your chosen times, the airport, and whether checked bags are included, we can find you a better deal than what you’ve found). It’d be great for everyone if this thread continued so we can see the follow-up, which could interest quite a few members.
TA Tatra Globetrotter ·
Hi there,

I’ve—well, we’ve—already tried explaining to them that flights on those dates, to that destination, are really peak season and full fare, and that in any case, the planes would be fully booked, even at 450 € or 500 € for a round-trip ticket. We can obviously attach a screenshot.

That theory about last-minute cheap tickets to "fill up" the plane—I’ve never actually seen it happen. I’ve traveled on nearly empty flights before, but I never noticed prices being slashed at the last minute.

Michel
MI Mithron ·
Good evening,

I’ve—we’ve—already tried to explain to him that flights on that date, to that destination, are really at the peak of high season and full fare, and that in any case, the planes would be full, even at 450 or 500 € for a round-trip ticket. We can obviously attach a screenshot.

That theory about last-minute cheap tickets to "fill" the plane—I’ve never seen it proven. I’ve traveled on nearly empty planes before, but I never noticed that prices had been slashed at the last minute.

Michel

Good evening, I never travel during holidays or school vacations, but for the rest of the year, I confirm what the author of this post says. Often, prices are the same whether you book two months in advance or 15 days before departure, but never cheaper in the last 15 days.
BA Barneyg Regular ·
What you're suggesting is possible if the airline doesn't fully understand the demand for its product or doesn't adapt quickly enough to changes in demand. That seems increasingly implausible given modern information systems.

If we could expect prices to drop as departure approaches, everyone would wait for that drop to book. Since the plane would be practically empty before the price cut, the airline would have to slash prices dramatically to fill it—on top of facing huge uncertainty and no cash flow for a long period. If this process were repeated across thousands of flights, it’d be a surefire recipe for bankruptcy. Don’t forget that airlines get interest-free financing when we book in advance; they have every reason to encourage us to do so.

Airlines aim to model the rate at which tickets will sell throughout the year, slightly lowering prices when demand is lower than expected and raising them when it’s higher. The goal is to leave just a few seats for those who *have* to buy last-minute. It doesn’t always work, and sometimes a plane might fly 75% empty, but that’s still better than permanently reducing revenue with a fire sale just to fill the aircraft.

The simplest approach is to book as soon as the price suits you **and** you’re certain you’ll take the flight. You can also sign up for price alerts and spend 15 minutes a day for months checking if it’s dropped by 20 €. That’s fine if you enjoy it.
ER Erjome Globetrotter ·
Hey Michel,

That theory about last-minute cheap tickets to "fill up" planes—I’ve never seen it proven. I’ve traveled on nearly empty flights, but I never noticed prices being slashed at the last minute.

Here’s an example of a major price adjustment:

Ryanair applies a record 500% price hike on a round-trip flight to the sun from Beauvais! - Courrier Picard

As always, it’s all about supply and demand. And when not enough seats are sold at the desired prices, it happens (almost exclusively with low-cost airlines) that the flight is simply canceled more than 14 days before departure to avoid paying compensation. It’s way cheaper than discounting seats with a poor load factor. Business is business 😄
"Si partir vivre ses rêves remplit l'âme, les partager après les avoir réalisés la grandit" "Qui veut apprendre à se connaître commence par explorer le monde"
DE Dennis2 Regular ·
Hello, if you want to fly cheap, Ryanair is around 200 € round-trip to SVQ at the end of December...

But the flight leaves from Beauvais, and of course, the base price is only with a small bag...
TA Tatra Globetrotter ·
Hi,

212 one-way. Round trip 480 with carry-on luggage. Just checked for the dates mentioned in this thread.

Michel
DE Dennis2 Regular ·
True, if you’re not a bit flexible with the dates and departure airport, the price is 2x higher…
MI Mithron ·
Hello, if you want to fly cheap, Ryanair is around 200 € round-trip for SVQ at the end of December...

But the flight leaves from Beauvais and of course the base price is only with a small bag...

Hi, why keep insisting on replying to this person when they clearly said "given the comments, we were useless"—more precisely, "broken legs" They have a point in the sense that they clearly stated: "no Ryanair" Then they added: "I don’t think it’s worth continuing a discussion that can only be pointless given the comments." They initially asked a very specific question that required more info to answer, but since they refuse to give the details we asked for (which departure airport, what times they chose in their simulation, cabin baggage and/or hold luggage, whether they picked the site Kayak suggested for the price they saw or the airline they saw with a lower price, etc...) Understand that they’ve moved on and couldn’t care less about the help we could’ve given them.
DE Dennis2 Regular ·
And all that for a flight to Spain, which isn’t the hardest to find…
MI Mithron ·
And all that for a flight to Spain, which isn’t the hardest to find....

Here’s the recap: he wants to wait until the last minute hoping the price drops Between Christmas and New Year’s, he’s really pushing it and risks paying a lot (trying to find the cheapest during the holidays) 🤪 He doesn’t want Ryanair 🤪 He stopped responding even though we were about to find him something cheaper than his simulation if he gave us more info 🤪 At my place, we use kayaks to go down rivers 🤪 We’re "useless" (in his words) 🤪 Good luck with his search and happy travels!!!
ER Erjome Globetrotter ·
To sum up: he wants to wait until the last minute hoping the price will drop. Between Christmas and New Year’s, he’s really pushing it and risks paying a lot (trying to find the cheapest during the holidays) He doesn’t want Ryanair He stopped responding even though we were about to find him a better deal than his simulation if he’d just given us more info Where I come from, we use kayaks to go down rivers We’re "useless" (in his words) Good luck with his search and happy travels!!!

And he’s used to getting cheaper prices at the last minute. But he’s asking for opinions and feedback on this. And since there aren’t any... Well, here we are 😅

It’s rare that I waste so much time like this for nothing, for an exchange I’d say is totally unconstructive and brings me absolutely nothing

Good thing for me too—I won’t be wasting any more time on this post 😤
"Si partir vivre ses rêves remplit l'âme, les partager après les avoir réalisés la grandit" "Qui veut apprendre à se connaître commence par explorer le monde"
JP JPaul92 Regular ·
Hello,

This message is for the "know-it-alls" who replied to me in this thread,

those who have logic for everything, who are convinced they know it all, those who are immediately recognized when traveling abroad! Those who answered my question: Did they know of any logic in the evolution of a flight ticket's price from its issuance until the plane's departure? Here’s the price of a flight ticket 11 days before departure for the same departure and arrival dates, and for the best departure times whether leaving from Paris or returning from Seville. It went from 420 € to 308 €, a drop of about 35%. No comment on "yield management," to the one who predicted 600 euros, to the one who needed to know the departure airport! To the others who thought that at this time of year, to the born optimists—basically, to all the "know-it-alls"! No further comment is necessary. Thank you.

Happy New Year to everyone. I can’t attach the hard copy since the forum doesn’t accept it, but here’s a copy:

09:55 – 12:30 CDGParis-Charles-de-Gaulle SVQSeville Airport direct 2h 35min · 11:20 – 13:45 SVQSeville Airport - ORYParis-Orly Airport direct 2h 25min Vueling, Transavia France Non-refundable 309 € Economy
TA Tatra Globetrotter ·
Good evening,

I can't attach the hard copy—the forum won't accept it—but here's a copy

VF accepts screenshots, so I don’t see the issue. It’d make things clearer.

Michel
JP JPaul92 Regular ·
Good evening tatra First, I’ll quote your nonsense, your disbelief, and your insistence in these exchanges.

The saddest part is how heavily you’re insisting.

"I’ve—we’ve—already tried explaining to them that flights on those dates, to that destination, are peak season at full price, and that planes would be fully booked anyway, even at 450 or 500 € for a round-trip ticket. We can obviously attach a screenshot.

This theory about last-minute cheap tickets just to "fill" the plane—I’ve never seen proof of it. I’ve traveled on nearly empty flights, but I never noticed prices being slashed at the last minute." —Michel

"We’ve already tried explaining that flights on those dates..." I don’t care about your explanations—I’ve taken countless trips!

Who do you think you are? Go ahead and send a message with a screenshot attached—you’ll see the forum’s response.

Better yet, there’s much better:

Your silence will be the best response because you’re exhausting me. I don’t want

to read you, not at all—I have no desire to read you. You don’t understand anything that’s written.

This forum should be constructive and meant for helping each other or sharing travel experiences— which isn’t what you’re doing.
TA Tatra Globetrotter ·
Good evening,

This kind of screenshot, for example.

Your flight is a combination of two separate tickets, with two different airlines, departing from CDG and returning to ORY. The price of this combo is indeed the cheapest available, but it hasn’t dropped since the beginning, and it’s only now appearing as the convenient option it wasn’t before.

Have a great trip!

Michel
MI Mitch341 Regular ·
Well, that's sent! 😎
Evita Bella ! https://www.flickr.com/photos/201886709@N02/albums/
JP JPaul92 Regular ·
The capercaillie, a bird of ill omen? Fortunately, it's dying out.
MA Mathews Globetrotter ·
hey, did you book your ticket after all that back and forth? 😉
JP JPaul92 Regular ·
Yes at 308 €
MA Mathews Globetrotter ·
well, some photos of the patios and the Alcázar would be great after your trip.
JP JPaul92 Regular ·
I’m quoting what you wrote:

"and it just now occurred to you as the convenient choice it wasn’t before."

Is this the language of someone who’s had a bit too much of... something?

At this point, there’s no fixing it—nothing more can be done. The damage is too deep!

I don’t buy it... And they’ve got the nerve to write 50,000 posts! The great capercaillie is doomed, thankfully.
TA Tatra Globetrotter ·
Good evening,

This means that this combination of tickets has always existed, at an even lower price, by the way. The only difference is that until now, it hadn’t interested you (two different airlines, different departure and return airports...). 308 € for a combination of low-cost tickets like this—one-way departures from CDG and returns to Orly, with no baggage or any options—is very expensive. Now, with the urgency, it’s caught your interest. But this isn’t a ticket (or rather, two tickets) whose price has dropped as the departure date approaches.

Anyway, bring us back some photos or a flight report. 🙂 Reading your writing is always a pleasure.

Michel

Similar discussions

You might also like