Upcoming Jet Fuel Shortage in Vietnam and Sri Lanka
FR

Translated into English.

HE Henon21 Veteran ·
Hi Michel

Thanks for the info—this kerosene is apparently mostly refined in the Middle East!! Have a great day Eric
HENON Eric
MA Mathews Globetrotter ·
Hey Henon21, right now we're not fully grasping the consequences of the Middle East crisis.

When it comes to airlines, those that don’t have enough cash flow and reserves risk going under—and it could get ugly if the conflict drags on. Trump just asked Congress for an extra $200 billion to keep the hostilities going.

As for Sri Lanka, don’t lose sight of the fact that the country took out a loan of around 20 billion (I think) from China.

If tourist numbers drop and the Port of Colombo sees less activity, the country could default on its payments.

Oh, and since Lloyd’s of London insures a big chunk of the commercial ships out there, what happens if the insurer has to compensate shipowners for any damage? 😉

Stay tuned
TA Tatra Globetrotter ·
Hi Eric,

Thanks for the info—this kerosene is supposedly mostly refined in the Middle East!!

It’s definitely refined there for local airports, which are major global hubs, but I’ve never heard of kerosene itself being massively exported through the Strait of Hormuz. Sure, some kerosene normally passes through Hormuz, but to say it’s *vital*? I don’t think so.

Michel
HE Henon21 Veteran ·
Hi Michel, Where does the truth lie? In *La Tribune* a day ago: "...kerosene, which is essentially refined in the Middle East, Laurent Tim reminds us." In *Les Échos* four days ago: "In aviation, the situation is even more critical than for diesel, half of which comes from refineries located outside France." Etc... Thanks for your input and have a great weekend! Eric
HENON Eric
MA Mathews Globetrotter ·
Hello Michel Where does the truth lie?

Hi there, On one hand, producing jet fuel isn’t the same as producing diesel. Obviously, the chemical formula for each is different, as are the octane rating, combustion point, etc... Then, when you buy a liter of fuel at the pump, it’s not just the liter of fuel you’re paying for. There’s also marketing, taxes—especially the T.I.P.P.—refining costs to factor in, the cost of crude oil, etc... And then there’s the gas station—basically, the distributor who needs to make a profit. So if the price of crude oil goes up, the entire supply chain feels the impact. In short, there’s a whole bunch of factors that go into setting the final fuel price.
HE Henon21 Veteran ·
Hi there, Thanks for the reminder, but the original question isn’t about price—it’s about an apparently more critical shortage of aviation kerosene! Have a great weekend, Eric
HENON Eric
MA Mathews Globetrotter ·
but the core question has nothing to do with price—it’s about an apparently more critical shortage of aviation kerosene!

Good evening, Actually, the selling price *does* affect how fuel reserves are built up. In a market economy, everything’s connected—what we call a value chain.

Take, for example, the small gas station owner in Manila. Given how prices have shot up—nearly doubled—what happens? They’re forced to restock often just to sell their current fuel inventory to customers. But with prices rising, they don’t have enough cash on hand to buy new liters of fuel from their suppliers. Say they’ve got the equivalent of $500 to fill up their own tanks. If the fuel price doubles when they reorder from their supplier, they can’t stock enough to meet demand.

It’s the same issue for airlines that don’t have enough cash reserves. And I wouldn’t be surprised if many airlines are operating at cost—barely making any profit margin at all.

As for fuel stock levels, you’ll have to follow the news... but let’s not kid ourselves—the crisis is going to hit a lot of people 😐
FR Fred418 Regular ·
Hi Frédéric,

Ethiopian Airlines has always been the go-to for technical stopovers. In fact, they do some pretty cool ones—I once had the fun of flying from Copenhagen to Vienna on one of their long-haul flights. They also make stopovers in Bangkok for flights continuing to Hong Kong, Jakarta, and more. That said, I’m surprised by what you wrote. After spending a few minutes checking specialized sites, I couldn’t find any trace of such a stopover on flights to Bangkok, for example.

Michel



TA Tatra Globetrotter ·
Hello,

Are you sure this isn’t planned regardless of the war in Iran and the pressure on kerosene? There could also be other operational reasons, like cargo or the altitude of Addis Ababa Airport.

Michel
FR Fred418 Regular ·


TA Tatra Globetrotter ·
Yes, but there’s no proof this is linked to the current kerosene crisis. Wasn’t this planned all along? As I mentioned, cargo is a major issue for this kind of flight, and we’d need to check if the technical stopover wasn’t scheduled way before the crisis.

Michel
SI Sinforosa Veteran ·
Today, Volotea is canceling or changing flights to Spain, Italy, Corsica, and other European destinations for April and May, just as spring break starts this weekend. https://www.air-journal.fr/2026-03-29-volotea-annule-des-vols-en-invoquant-le-moyen-orient-hausse-du-kerosene-ou-mauvaise-anticipation-5274216.html

Looks like we’ll have to find destinations we can reach by train...
" Celui qui voyage sans rencontrer l'autre ne voyage pas , il se déplace " ( Alexandra David-Néel )

" Ahora todos quieren ser latinos , no , ey , pero les falta sazon , bateria y reggaeton " ( Bad Bunny )
TA Tatra Globetrotter ·
Hi,

Yes, but it’s not happening "today" exactly. The article you mentioned refers to the airline I didn’t name in post 22, and if you read it, you’ll see it’s not about these flight cancellations but rather about doubts regarding the arguments put forward. There’s no conclusion to be drawn from this article regarding European flights in the coming months.

Michel

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