Pieces of the
Gulf oil slick are breaking off and beginning to enter the loop current, possibility propelling tar balls towards beaches in the
Bahamas and South
Florida over the next several weeks.
Freeport and Grand Bahama Island, even Nassau, could be impacted by drifting oil pieces caught in the
Gulf Stream current, which flows around the tip of
Florida and passes along the western end of the
Bahamas.
Assuming oil continues to spew from the broken well, AccuWeather.com meteorologists and various models suggest oil slick pieces cutting under the
Florida Keys and heading towards
Florida's east coast by early next week.
Meteorologists foresee oil passing under Key West, Fla., possibly washing upon shores in
Miami, and then heading north to Freeport,
Bahamas.
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A trajectory could also place oil pieces farther south, interacting with beaches along
Havana,
Cuba and then swinging wide through Grand Bahama Island.
The loop current exists as part of the
Gulf Stream, which flows north between
Cuba and the
Yucatan Peninsula, and continues to flow north into the
Gulf of
Mexico before looping to the south and then east through the
Florida Straits.
The danger of oil becoming wrapped in the loop current is the current's
Gulf Stream direction, which could carry oil, mostly in the form of tar balls, swiftly up the Atlantic Seaboard.
The Associated Press reported that a cap placed on the broken well last week is currently channeling more than half of escaping oil to a surface ship.
Upcoming Weather ConditionsWarm, humid weather will persist across the
Gulf Coast region this upcoming week. Winds are expected to be light and variable through Monday before becoming oriented out of the south Tuesday into the middle of the week. This shift to southerly winds will increase the threat of tar balls showing up along
Florida Panhandle beaches.
Seas will average between 1 and 2 feet much of the week.
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Beach UpdateThere were reports of tar balls washing up on
Pensacola, Fla. beaches as early as last Friday morning. A few tar balls also have been reported along northwestern
Florida's Emerald Coast. However, there are currently no beach closings in the state of
Florida.
The
Gulf Island beaches are also open, with pieces of oil showing up over the weekend at Horn and Petit Bois islands, as well as at Fort Pickens and Satna Rosa.
Orange Beach, Ala. currently has a swimming advisory put into place by the
Alabama State Department of Public Heath.
Grand Isle, La. has also closed its public beaches.
People should avoid swimming in oil impacted areas, as the odor alone can cause respiratory problems. Swallowing water infused with oil can also cause nausea, vomiting and diarrhea.
What's the Probability of Tar Balls Impacting Your Coastal Spot?Below is a table that provides the probability of oil reaching specific locations. We will continue to make updates to the table as weather conditions and oil containment efforts develop.
What do the probabilities mean?For example, at Galveston Island during the next 30 days, there is a 5% chance of oil impacting coastal areas within that time period.
Over the next 120 days, there is a 15% chance of impact.
Please note, while the probabilities do take into account the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Forecast, the probabilities can change dramatically based on the strength and path of a hurricane moving through the
Gulf of
Mexico.
